← PTM Store Championship LMCafe
Water FractalTier 1
at PTM Store Championship LMCafe
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-5-0
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1277
· median 1277
· range 1177–1377
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1135
Q1 1181
Q3 1328
1478
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Astra Ranger | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 8.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.4% | -11.6 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
